Week 4 Predictions

Well it appears I'm getting better at this prediction thing.  Week 3 was certainly an improvement for me.  here are my thoughts on the Week 4 games:

Jets at Bills - The Bills are awful.  The Jets are not.  Jets are great on the road and are statistically better than the Bills in almost every measurable category.  Jets win easily. 

Bengals at Browns - Week 4 won't provide the respite that the Browns need.  Browns have a better run game and are better on 3rd down, but the Bengals have a better offense, and a better defense.  It won't be a blowout but the Bengals win on the road.

Ravens at Steelers - Game of the week, kids.  Really tough to call.  Steelers are considerably better in the run game but the Ravens easily win the pass game.  Ravens defend the pass better and Steelers defend the run better.  Every stat seems to play to the opposing teams strengths and it comes out fairly balanced except for one important one - 3rd down.  Ravens have a 45% conversion rate on 3rd down...amazing...and the Steelers are awful against opponents on third down.  Maybe the home crowd energy helps Pittsburgh with that.  We'll see.  I see the Steelers in the Super Bowl, and I think the Ravens are maybe a little overrated.  They barely beat the Jets, lost to the bengals, and let Cleveland stay in the game.  I want the Ravens to win, and I think Pittsburghs bubble has to burst at some point, but I don't think this is the week.  Steelers win 6-3.

Denver at Tennessee - Tennessee runs away with it...literally.  Denver's run D isn't bad, but Chris Johnson is a stud and will show why again on Sunday.  Tennessee wins at home. 


Detroit at Green Bay - I just feel bad for Detroit.  They don't suck, but they need the schedule gods to cut em a break.  No way they win in Green Bay.  Pack win big big big and Clay Matthews is the first NFL player to sack a QB 17 times in one game.  Lock of the week.

Niners at Falcons - Good LORD the Niners need to win a football game!  Talent plus desperation usually equal a win, but I wonder can they do it on the road against one of the best teams in the NFC?  That's a tall order to fill.  Statistically there is just no good reason to believe that the Niners can do it.  Falcons win. 


Panthers at Saints - The Panthers are a lame duck team.  They've given up the season already and the Saints are pissed off at the loss last week.  Plus they're at home.  Saints win. 


Seahawks at Rams - My gut says the Seahawks, but ya know what...and I could really believe this myself...statistically speaking the Rams are slightly better than the Seahawks in almost every category.  Rams got a little win last week and they are home now and riding high with a little confidence.  I think the Rams pull it off in my upset special of the week. 


Colts at Jaguars - Ugh.  Who wants to watch this game?  Colts will set offensive records this week against the hapless Jags.  Colts win huge.


Texans at Raiders - Until the Raiders show me they can win, I assume they can't.  Texans are a very talented team and should take this game fairly easily, even on the Road.  Texans win.


Washington at Philly - Ok, so this is the "McNabb" game where he supposedly rides into town with an axe to grind.  Fine, so he probably knows how to expose the defense.  But that wont help his own defense much against a rejuvenated Vick.  Skins are crashing, Eagles are soaring (sorry I had to) and Eagles should win at home.


Cardinals at Chargers - The Cards have beat two awful teams and lost to the only quality opponent they've played.  The Chargers have beat an awful team and lost to the two quality teams they've played.  Both teams are trying to salvage any hope they have for contending for a division crown.  But The Cards are on the road and San Diego is just a better team.  Chargers win. 


Bears at Giants - I really struggle with this game.  Bears are hot but they shouldn't be.  Cutler's 2 interceptions on the year are deceptive...he keeps trying to throw more but defenses keep getting called for penalties on the plays or dropping the football.  The Giants pass D is fairly good and could fix that issue.  The stats kind of play both ways.  Giants are at home and Eli won't continue to be as bad as he was last week, and I still don't totally buy the Bears as a contender, but I'm gonna say the Bears win on the road and go to 4-0. 

Patriots at Dolphins - Dolphins are a solid team and will be at home with a better defense than the Pats.  But I think Mr. Brady gets it done on the road in a tight game.  Pats win.  




What do you think?  Am I nuts?